Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Jun 9th, 2021

Expert Financing • June 9, 2021

Bank of Canada will hold current level of policy rate until inflation objective is sustainably achieved, continues quantitative easing


The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of ¼ percent, with the Bank Rate at ½ percent and the deposit rate at ¼ percent. The Bank is maintaining its extraordinary forward guidance on the path for the overnight rate. This is reinforced and supplemented by the Bank’s quantitative easing (QE) program, which continues at a target pace of $3 billion per week.


With COVID-19 cases falling in many countries and vaccine coverage rising, global economic activity is picking up. Growth remains uneven across regions, however. The US is experiencing a strong consumer-driven recovery and a rebound is beginning to take shape in Europe, while a resurgence of the virus is hampering the recovery in some emerging market economies. Financial conditions remain highly accommodative, reflected in broadly higher asset prices. Commodity prices have risen further, notably oil, and the Canadian dollar has seen a further appreciation.


In Canada, economic developments have been broadly in line with the outlook in the April Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Despite the second wave of the virus, first quarter GDP growth came in at a robust 5.6 per cent. While this was lower than the Bank had projected, the underlying details indicate rising confidence and resilient demand. Household spending was stronger than expected, while businesses drew down inventories and increased imports more than anticipated. Renewed lockdowns associated with the third wave are dampening economic activity in the second quarter, largely as anticipated. Recent jobs data show that workers in contact-sensitive sectors have once again been most affected. The employment rate remains well below its pre-pandemic level, with low wage workers, youth and women continuing to bear the brunt of job losses.


With vaccinations proceeding at a faster pace, and provincial containment restrictions on an easing path over the summer, the Canadian economy is expected to rebound strongly, led by consumer spending. Housing market activity is expected to moderate but remain elevated. Strong growth in foreign demand and higher commodity prices should also lead to a solid recovery in exports and business investment. Despite progress on vaccinations, there continues to be uncertainty about the evolution of new COVID-19 variants. More broadly, the risks to the inflation outlook identified in the April MPR remain relevant.


As expected, CPI inflation has risen to around the top of the 1-3 percent inflation-control range, due largely to base-year effects and much stronger gasoline prices. Core measures of inflation have also risen, due primarily to temporary factors and base year effects, but by much less than CPI inflation. While CPI inflation will likely remain near 3 percent through the summer, it is expected to ease later in the year, as base-year effects diminish and excess capacity continues to exert downward pressure.


The Governing Council judges that there remains considerable excess capacity in the Canadian economy, and that the recovery continues to require extraordinary monetary policy support. We remain committed to holding the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 percent inflation target is sustainably achieved. In the Bank’s April projection, this happens sometime in the second half of 2022. The Bank is continuing its QE program to reinforce this commitment and keep interest rates low across the yield curve. Decisions regarding adjustments to the pace of net bond purchases will be guided by Governing Council’s ongoing assessment of the strength and durability of the recovery. We will continue to provide the appropriate degree of monetary policy stimulus to support the recovery and achieve the inflation objective.


Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is July 14, 2021. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR at the same time.


Rebecca Harrap & 
Wendy Whiting
EXPERT FINANCING

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Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Jan 28th, 2026

By Expert Financing • January 28, 2026
Bank of Canada maintains policy rate at 2¼%. FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario January 28, 2026 The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. The outlook for the global and Canadian economies is little changed relative to the projection in the October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). However, the outlook is vulnerable to unpredictable US trade policies and geopolitical risks. Economic growth in the United States continues to outpace expectations and is projected to remain solid, driven by AI-related investment and consumer spending. Tariffs are pushing up US inflation, although their effect is expected to fade gradually later this year. In the euro area, growth has been supported by activity in service sectors and will get additional support from fiscal policy. China’s GDP growth is expected to slow gradually, as weakening domestic demand offsets strength in exports. Overall, the Bank expects global growth to average about 3% over the projection horizon. Global financial conditions have remained accommodative overall. Recent weakness in the US dollar has pushed the Canadian dollar above 72 cents, roughly where it had been since the October MPR. Oil prices have been fluctuating in response to geopolitical events and, going forward, are assumed to be slightly below the levels in the October report. US trade restrictions and uncertainty continue to disrupt growth in Canada. After a strong third quarter, GDP growth in the fourth quarter likely stalled. Exports continue to be buffeted by US tariffs, while domestic demand appears to be picking up. Employment has risen in recent months. Still, the unemployment rate remains elevated at 6.8% and relatively few businesses say they plan to hire more workers. Economic growth is projected to be modest in the near term as population growth slows and Canada adjusts to US protectionism. In the projection, consumer spending holds up and business investment strengthens gradually, with fiscal policy providing some support. The Bank projects growth of 1.1% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027, broadly in line with the October projection. A key source of uncertainty is the upcoming review of the Canada-US-Mexico Agreement. CPI inflation picked up in December to 2.4%, boosted by base-year effects linked to last winter’s GST/HST holiday. Excluding the effect of changes in taxes, inflation has been slowing since September. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation have eased from 3% in October to around 2½% in December. Inflation was 2.1% in 2025 and the Bank expects inflation to stay close to the 2% target over the projection period, with trade-related cost pressures offset by excess supply. Monetary policy is focused on keeping inflation close to the 2% target while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment. Governing Council judges the current policy rate remains appropriate, conditional on the economy evolving broadly in line with the outlook we published today. However, uncertainty is heightened and we are monitoring risks closely. If the outlook changes, we are prepared to respond. The Bank is committed to ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval. Information note The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is March 18, 2026. The Bank’s next MPR will be released on April 29, 2026. Read the January 28th, 2026 Monetary Report

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By Expert Financing • January 22, 2026
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